Where do the Twins go from here?

Baseball Betting Lines

03/09/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - You could almost hear a collective groan this morning, from Minneapolis all the way down to Fort Myers, as the news began to circulate that Minnesota Twins closer Joe Nathan could be lost for the season because of a torn ligament in his pitching elbow.

Outside of someone named Joe Mauer, Nathan is probably the most irreplaceable player on the Minnesota roster. Quite frankly, you can make the argument that Nathan is the more vital piece to the Twins' puzzle than the reigning American League Most Valuable Player.

The bad news started for the Twins over the weekend, when Nathan experienced tightness in his elbow after facing just one batter in an exhibition game against the Boston Red Sox.

He then left Florida and traveled back to Minnesota for tests, which revealed the tear. The team is going to get a second opinion, but once swelling in the elbow subsides, Nathan, in all likelihood, will have to undergo dreaded Tommy John surgery.

So where do the Twins go from here? With Nathan in the mix they were a heavy favorite to once again win the AL Central. Now, not so much.

I mean, how exactly do you replace a guy who in the last five years has saved more games than any other closer in baseball? It is impossible, you can't, especially if you are the Twins.

There are closers out there for the taking. Cleveland's Kerry Wood and Cincinnati's Francisco Cordero ring a bell right off the bat. The problem there, of course, is that while the Twins could probably pull off a deal, they are paying Nathan $11.25 million this season.

Can you really see them shelling out an additional $10+ million for the closer position? It is not going to happen.

San Diego's Heath Bell could also probably be had. He only makes about $4 million this season, but the Twins would have to unload the farm for him.

There is an intriguing option out there for Ron Gardenhire, and he does not have to look very far to find it. That option is lefty Francisco Liriano, who by all accounts has looked about as good this past winter as at any time since undergoing his own Tommy John surgery following the 2006 season.

Down in the Dominican, Liriano was throwing his fastball in the mid-90s along with a "filthy" slider. Minnesota had high hopes for him finally living up to that world of potential he flashed in the 2006 campaign, when he went 12-3 and drew comparisons to Johan Santana.

Quite simply, the Twins were counting on him being their ace this season.

I had already pegged Liriano as the key to the Twins' season before I heard the awful news on Nathan. Now, it is even more apparent that he will make or break the Twins this season. If they decide to keep him in rotation, there is an even bigger need for him to be an ace. And if they move him to the pen, well, all this worrying today could be rendered moot.

Of course, I am not sure that Liriano can handle it from a physical standpoint. It has been over three years since his own surgery, and unlike other pitchers who have had it, he has never really been the same.

Actually, he has regressed.

If he is physically up to the task, though, he is the Twins' best option from an in-house standpoint. But then again, if they move him, could Minnesota get by with a rotation of Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins and Brian Duensing?

That is not great, but it is not awful either. The Twins were a favorite to win the division even before people knew what they were going to get from Liriano. Not having him in the rotation may not hurt them, simply because he was such an unknown.

Early on, it would be a struggle for Liriano to go on back-to-back nights, but the Twins do have a former closer on their roster in right-hander Jon Rauch, who saved 17 games for the Washington Nationals in 2008. Rauch is the perfect guy to ease Liriano into an everyday role.

While it sounds easy enough to convert Liriano, Minnesota may not want to mess with him any further, especially on such short notice. We are just under a month away from the start of the season. I am not sure they can get his arm into that kind of shape just yet. He would need a little extra conditioning in Fort Myers.

But like I said, Rauch should be able to hold down the fort until Liriano is ready.

I know it is more important to have a dominating ace than a closer, but Liriano hasn't come close to being the pitcher he was before the surgery. Who knows if he ever will be again? I say make the move now.

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MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?

Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite.  Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight.  With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites.  As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).

Midwest

#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler

The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April.  Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT.  After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games.  Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season.  As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers.  Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS).  Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field.  With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.

#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV

As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year.  If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season.  As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well.  This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons.  Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late.  There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games.  It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.

East

#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown

“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season.  Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU.  They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games.  With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field.  Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense.  Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc.  The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range.  Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.

#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC

The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country.  Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times.  Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter.  UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen.  UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS.  An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games.  This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS.  USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types.  An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough.  USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS.  They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12.  When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.

With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action.  Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”.  By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.

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